Sep 05, 2026
The Single Biggest Indicator of Longevity
Historically, we’ve considered health biomarkers as predictors of health including cholesterol levels, blood pressure, body weight, hormones, and glucose.
But one of the most powerful predictors of how long—and how well—we live is much simpler:
That predictor is your VO2Max: The metric that tells you how efficient your cardiovascular system is at supplying oxygen to your heart, lungs and brain.
If you’ve read Dr Peter Attia’s Outlive book on longevity or followed Dr Amy Killen on social media, you know that VO2 Max – a metric for how your body manages oxygen flow – is acknowledged by longevity doctors as the single biggest predictor of your lifespan.
But How Do I Know What My Cardiovascular Fitness is Today?
3 Ways to Measure VO2Max
Professional Equipment
VO2Max has been measured for athletes using an uncomfortable and notoriously hard test. The method is to strap a mask to your face and run uphill on a treadmill at progressive speed and elevation for as long as you can. You are connected to a machine that calculates how much oxygen your body is actually consuming per minute. This is an incredibly unpleasant activity- I assure you, and also a costly one at $200+. Companies like Dexafit and PNOE provide these tests.
As a side note, many fitness watches provide an “estimated” VO2Max. A number will be provided to you – likely somewhere between 25 and 55 that is estimated based on your heart rate, pace and other information.
Treadmill Test:
There’s an easier way. Instead of strapping the death mask onto your face, experts have found a method that is just as accurate at predicting longevity. The simple step here is to test your ability to walk uphill on a treadmill for a period of time.
A woman considered “fit” can walk for 10 minutes at a progressively harder pace, ending at a “level 14 incline” at a 3.4mph pace. If you can do this, your mortality rate is 50% less than the least fit women.
Stair Flights:
No treadmill? One more option that you can practice at home is to climb 4 flights of stairs with 15 steps per flight. If you can do this in less than 45 seconds, you are doing well. If the first flight has you gasping? You have a new goal.
What Age is Too Old to Improve my VO2Max?
The answer: NEVER.
Unlike your chronological age or your genetics, your fitness is trainable.
- In a study of healthy women averaging 72 years old, a 50-week combined aerobic/resistance program increased VO₂ max by 16%.
- In another study of 85-year-old women, eight months of regular training improved VO₂ max by 18%.
It’s not failure if your numbers aren’t where you want them to be.
It’s information.
And that’s actually good news.
Because your starting point isn’t your destination.
This is what we mean by powerful aging.
- We can’t change our chronological age.
- We can’t rewrite our genetics.
- But we can build capacity.
So the next time you walk past a staircase, you might look at it a little differently.
It isn’t just a staircase.
It’s a simple test of your current capacity—and an opportunity to build more.
